Perhaps we need to work toward reforming the monetary/financial system, and then allocate interest-free credit for productive purposes within ecological limitations and material economic constraints.
Well, it's a pity we're probably going to see ludicrous amounts of mostly public money wasted on pipelines in the next few years. I'll certainly join any movements to oppose. But, that's as far as it goes. Those pipelines are not going to get filled, and Canada's emissions are going to start coming down surprisingly soon.
Alberta can squall all it wants, but this right now is the LAST chance for the oil patch to make money. The energy transition is under way, and Asian countries in particular have reacted to the supply shortages caused by Trump's attack on Iran, by starting to move towards renewables and electrification as fast as they can. Whether it's Pakistan or Indonesia, South Korea or Vietnam, they're all shifting their policies aggressively towards renewable energy and away from vulnerability to oil or gas import price shocks. China will sell them everything they need, from solar panels and batteries to electric cars and trucks and buses and high speed train lines. And the same is true elsewhere; European EV sales are surging, Egypt is talking crash programs for solar energy.
The bottom line is, demand for oil and imported LNG is going to start dropping, soon. It's probably peaked. Right now, reduction in supply is still bigger, but that won't last more than two years at most. After that, there's a supply glut and prices drop. And Alberta's tar sands, and for that matter BC's LNG plays, get priced out of the market. By 2030, well before any pipeline can be finished, the Alberta oil patch will be shrinking. As it goes away, so will its emissions and Canada will suddenly be a lot cleaner. By 2035 it will be mostly gone and so will its political clout and its paid propaganda. And Albertans will have to shut up about transfer payments because they'll probably be receiving them.
Smith has gotten her security pass... given her friends in the US, wonder what she will do with the extra information available. Shows how slack our vetting is for national security.
Thank you Charlie for another interesting & truthful article. Pipelines, Pipelines & then coal as well!!!! Is 🇨🇦🍁🇨🇦 trying to be in
" last place"? with clean energy policy? Other countries will decline trade with us if we insist on using what is quickly becoming obsolete. Trying to commit " genocide" of our own Indigenous Peoples???? Such a shame, that the only thing
" sacred" it seems is that filthy $$$$$. Yes we need it to survive but not at others expense. Come on 🇨🇦🍁🇨🇦 we can & should do better.
Thank you for this. Was just going to write roughly the same thing. A couple points to add.
On missing climate goals a material part of that is the Smith and Ford destruction of existing renewable projects, effective moratorium on new projects and clear message received by private money that they will be abused in these projects.
On the Donbas operation - it is well underway. We need teeth in our laws and/ or aggressive social media management of overseas accounts piping propaganda into our internal deliberations.
On dealing with Trump et al, we should be shutting that down too. It’s foreign interference to be floating massive loans and who knows what else to separatists. And to the UCP government.
And finally, Smith is de facto leading the separatists. She no mandate legally or publicly for her actions. And her path is immoral, illegal and purposely chaotic.
Please do keep questioning the PM. The notion that Canada cannot benefit from dissenting voices at a time of crisis is a dangerous notion. More dangerous than a skin deep united front. Skin deep buries voices that matter, those being the voices that ask important questions.
About Alberta -- I suggest there be a price put on remaining a part of the Confederation. AB has to get out from under Big Oil. Big Oil has damaged Canada, turning us into very close to a petro-state. It has fed neo-liberalism to such an extent that the only issue that matters is a narrow idea of economic benefit, which is now wrongly equated with the well-being of Canadians.
I suggest that we put to AB that, should they decide to remain, they move to diversify their economy away from Big Oil(as they were doing, very successfully, with renewables); they dispatch their allegiance to the GOP, and they recognize, officially, the value of being Canadian extends beyond the grievance seeking transactional approach that is destructive of a values based country.
The problem with the separatists is well documented. The real issue is the "me first" mentality of so many people these days. All the provinces have issues with Ottawa, Federal Government, regardless of which party forms the Federal Government. We had Wexit during Brexit, the Western Independence Party or some such thing and then we had Preston Manning/Stephan Harper with the Reform Party, which changed its name a few times because of public push back. They then performed a hostile takeover of the Progressive Conservative Party when Peter McKay lost his spine and handed the reins to Harper. The same sort of thing happened in Alberta. We had numerous conservative parties but the two main were the Progressive Conservatives and the Wildrose. Wildrose essentially the wild and woolly bunch that supported radical right wingers. Enter Jason Kenney, former Harper Minister to save the day. Combined the Wildrose radicals with the middle of the road Progressive Conservatives and became our Julius Caesar, being stabbed in the back by the very people he rescued from the political hinterland. Then the push came and Smith was elevated to lead the UCPs by her overlords who now sponsor and are the base of the separatist movement.
It does not matter what the PM or the Federal Government do, Smith is a despotic style leader and her main weapon is grievance politics. Jeeze, these people are still talking about Trudeau as if he still exists, both Trudeaus that is.
I am an American... a true American... who does NOT support the current regime in the US, and am sadden at what is going on in my beloved Canada (I have very close and strong heritage ties with Canada) not only at the hands of our current regime directly and indirectly, but also of Canada's own political quagmire currently.
Thank you for this amazing summary of the separatist appeal versus the facts of Canada's support of Alberta Oil. Facts make all the difference, clear the head, shd clear the air- if we are listening...?
My job in Toronto and then in Ithaca was to lobby for bike safety and bike lanes and livable communities. I find it ironic how much attention I now pay to gas production and auto production as a matter of national defense and stability. I am glad Carney is at least listening to environmentalists and First Nations people and reconsidering how to go about oil independence and business. We can’t completely throw out our long fought for principles in the name of Drumpfer fear. And btw, we will prevail. Signed, a defiant Canadian living in America.
Perhaps we need to work toward reforming the monetary/financial system, and then allocate interest-free credit for productive purposes within ecological limitations and material economic constraints.
So many good points. Is anyone listening?
Yes!
As an Albertan, thank you for telling it like it is.
Well, it's a pity we're probably going to see ludicrous amounts of mostly public money wasted on pipelines in the next few years. I'll certainly join any movements to oppose. But, that's as far as it goes. Those pipelines are not going to get filled, and Canada's emissions are going to start coming down surprisingly soon.
Alberta can squall all it wants, but this right now is the LAST chance for the oil patch to make money. The energy transition is under way, and Asian countries in particular have reacted to the supply shortages caused by Trump's attack on Iran, by starting to move towards renewables and electrification as fast as they can. Whether it's Pakistan or Indonesia, South Korea or Vietnam, they're all shifting their policies aggressively towards renewable energy and away from vulnerability to oil or gas import price shocks. China will sell them everything they need, from solar panels and batteries to electric cars and trucks and buses and high speed train lines. And the same is true elsewhere; European EV sales are surging, Egypt is talking crash programs for solar energy.
The bottom line is, demand for oil and imported LNG is going to start dropping, soon. It's probably peaked. Right now, reduction in supply is still bigger, but that won't last more than two years at most. After that, there's a supply glut and prices drop. And Alberta's tar sands, and for that matter BC's LNG plays, get priced out of the market. By 2030, well before any pipeline can be finished, the Alberta oil patch will be shrinking. As it goes away, so will its emissions and Canada will suddenly be a lot cleaner. By 2035 it will be mostly gone and so will its political clout and its paid propaganda. And Albertans will have to shut up about transfer payments because they'll probably be receiving them.
Smith has gotten her security pass... given her friends in the US, wonder what she will do with the extra information available. Shows how slack our vetting is for national security.
Yes!
Thank you Charlie for another interesting & truthful article. Pipelines, Pipelines & then coal as well!!!! Is 🇨🇦🍁🇨🇦 trying to be in
" last place"? with clean energy policy? Other countries will decline trade with us if we insist on using what is quickly becoming obsolete. Trying to commit " genocide" of our own Indigenous Peoples???? Such a shame, that the only thing
" sacred" it seems is that filthy $$$$$. Yes we need it to survive but not at others expense. Come on 🇨🇦🍁🇨🇦 we can & should do better.
Thank you for this. Was just going to write roughly the same thing. A couple points to add.
On missing climate goals a material part of that is the Smith and Ford destruction of existing renewable projects, effective moratorium on new projects and clear message received by private money that they will be abused in these projects.
On the Donbas operation - it is well underway. We need teeth in our laws and/ or aggressive social media management of overseas accounts piping propaganda into our internal deliberations.
On dealing with Trump et al, we should be shutting that down too. It’s foreign interference to be floating massive loans and who knows what else to separatists. And to the UCP government.
And finally, Smith is de facto leading the separatists. She no mandate legally or publicly for her actions. And her path is immoral, illegal and purposely chaotic.
Don’t know why any Canadian would want to become part of the corruption in US.
I guess it’s for the same reason some Americans support the Trump Crime Show - money, money, money.
Please do keep questioning the PM. The notion that Canada cannot benefit from dissenting voices at a time of crisis is a dangerous notion. More dangerous than a skin deep united front. Skin deep buries voices that matter, those being the voices that ask important questions.
About Alberta -- I suggest there be a price put on remaining a part of the Confederation. AB has to get out from under Big Oil. Big Oil has damaged Canada, turning us into very close to a petro-state. It has fed neo-liberalism to such an extent that the only issue that matters is a narrow idea of economic benefit, which is now wrongly equated with the well-being of Canadians.
I suggest that we put to AB that, should they decide to remain, they move to diversify their economy away from Big Oil(as they were doing, very successfully, with renewables); they dispatch their allegiance to the GOP, and they recognize, officially, the value of being Canadian extends beyond the grievance seeking transactional approach that is destructive of a values based country.
The problem with the separatists is well documented. The real issue is the "me first" mentality of so many people these days. All the provinces have issues with Ottawa, Federal Government, regardless of which party forms the Federal Government. We had Wexit during Brexit, the Western Independence Party or some such thing and then we had Preston Manning/Stephan Harper with the Reform Party, which changed its name a few times because of public push back. They then performed a hostile takeover of the Progressive Conservative Party when Peter McKay lost his spine and handed the reins to Harper. The same sort of thing happened in Alberta. We had numerous conservative parties but the two main were the Progressive Conservatives and the Wildrose. Wildrose essentially the wild and woolly bunch that supported radical right wingers. Enter Jason Kenney, former Harper Minister to save the day. Combined the Wildrose radicals with the middle of the road Progressive Conservatives and became our Julius Caesar, being stabbed in the back by the very people he rescued from the political hinterland. Then the push came and Smith was elevated to lead the UCPs by her overlords who now sponsor and are the base of the separatist movement.
It does not matter what the PM or the Federal Government do, Smith is a despotic style leader and her main weapon is grievance politics. Jeeze, these people are still talking about Trudeau as if he still exists, both Trudeaus that is.
Great article, Charlie. Thank you.
I am an American... a true American... who does NOT support the current regime in the US, and am sadden at what is going on in my beloved Canada (I have very close and strong heritage ties with Canada) not only at the hands of our current regime directly and indirectly, but also of Canada's own political quagmire currently.
Thank you for this amazing summary of the separatist appeal versus the facts of Canada's support of Alberta Oil. Facts make all the difference, clear the head, shd clear the air- if we are listening...?
My job in Toronto and then in Ithaca was to lobby for bike safety and bike lanes and livable communities. I find it ironic how much attention I now pay to gas production and auto production as a matter of national defense and stability. I am glad Carney is at least listening to environmentalists and First Nations people and reconsidering how to go about oil independence and business. We can’t completely throw out our long fought for principles in the name of Drumpfer fear. And btw, we will prevail. Signed, a defiant Canadian living in America.
Yes Charlie. From my viewpoint (and using a carpentry metaphor) your summary nails it.
This post should be required reading for every true Canadian regardless of political leanings.
I remember from an early age my father railing against the oil companies. To think that the threat they pose is now an existential crisis is sobering.
Charlie, when are you going to rename this blog as the endless "Terry Byrne" pontification?