The Hinge of History

Canada finds its future in Europe

Last week, Trump created havoc at the G7. This week, he undermined the NATO meetings in Brussels. Both gatherings were attempts by the Western "allies" to stabilize an increasingly unstable world — Trump made sure that didn't happen.

At NATO, he refused to commit to Article 5, which would obligate NATO to defend its allies like Canada or Greenland from threats. Like his visit to the G7, Trump promoted Putin even though he represents the biggest threat to Europe.

He then totally blindsided his allies with the unilateral bombing of Iran.

Trump's attack on Iran garnered maximum attention. First, he demanded regime change, and the next day was sending unhinged social media posts begging Iran and Israel to agree to a ceasefire.

Given that gong show, it isn't surprising that little attention was paid to the press conference between Prime Minister Mark Carney and the heads of the European Union. And yet, this press conference was indicative of a dramatic shift underway: both Canada and the EU are cutting loose from the traditional dependency on the United States.

It may also signal a new political and military realignment, whereby NATO no longer gets to be top dog. They will still be part of the project, but clearly, Carney sees the importance of cutting deals directly.

This latter point may represent a subtle public shift, but it is essential, particularly after we witnessed the cringe-worthy leadership of NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte at the Brussels meeting.

What did Rutte do in response to Trump's decision to risk a widening war in the Middle East? He gushed that the Trump dumpster fire was "truly extraordinary."

It wasn't extraordinary. It was totally reckless.

Then Rutte praised Trump as our “Daddy.” As in, sometimes Daddy gets angry.

Is NATO so desperate to stay in MAGA's good books that they will sign on to any reckless act coming out of Washington?

---

Last February, I attended the last round of NATO meetings and came to the realization that Canada cannot count on NATO leadership — this was when Trump first threatened Canada and Greenland.

But Rutte and other officials went out of their way to kiss up to the MAGA delegation.

At the first in-camera session, Rutte and his crew said nothing about Canadian sovereignty. Instead they berated our delegation, telling us that we had to start carrying our weight.

I stood up and challenged the head delegation. I could have pointed out that Canadian soldiers are on the front line of the eastern defense of Latvia. Or that our soldiers are leading Operation UNIFIER in Ukraine. I could also have said that our nation has given more per capita to help Ukraine than any of the G7.

But I kept it simple.

I pointed out that my family have an uncle lying in the fields of Belgium just 15 minutes up the road. I said that every Canadian has left our young lying in the fields from Normandy to Belgium to the Netherlands.

Canadians did this to free guys like Rutte from fascism.

I said bluntly: Don’t you ever tell Canadians to pull their weight.

Fortunately, I met with many of the countries on the front lines, like Sweden, Estonia, and Finland, who were less than impressed with how NATO was kissing up to MAGA at the expense of European security.

In a subsequent discussion, I called out NATO for refusing to challenge MAGA over the sell-out of Ukraine.

---

A New Alignment Takes Shape

Canada will remain in NATO, but we need to make decisions about our military spending in terms of what works for our nation.

When Carney says that we will meet the massive 5% GDP commitment that NATO is demanding by 2035, I feel that is a diplomatic language that allows Canada to say the spending will happen "on the 12th of never or based on what works for us."

But much more significant was how Carney and the EU decided that these decisions would take place in government-to-government alliances.

What was striking about the joint press conference was that it wasn't just about military procurement and increased trade. They were laying out a fundamental realignment based on the shared values of Europe and Canada.

Both Prime Minister Carney and the Europeans identified the need for an aggressive plan to fight the climate crisis while speaking up for academic freedom and scientific research. This is in stark contrast to MAGA and Maple MAGA, who have both declared war on climate action and the universities.

Will Canada and Europe become sanctuaries for the displaced research power that is being targeted in the United States? This is a very hopeful possibility.

However, what was most significant was that, for the first time, our prime minister stated that our future is not in the Americas but in Europe. He said that we are on a “hinge moment” in history. One where the past (i.e. the traditional US-Canada world) is being replaced by a commitment to the future (Canada-Europe).

In my two decades in politics, I’ve heard a lot of big vision statements from leaders. Almost always, they fail to deliver. But in watching Carney and the EU, I felt this time might be different.

Trump has forced Canada and Europe to make some very tough and pragmatic decisions. In a world increasingly dominated by gangster regimes, it is clear that Canada and Europe do share common values and interests.

The most obvious shared goal? Putting as much distance between ourselves and the dumpster fire of American politics.

Maybe, just maybe, we are building a new world. One based on values that are not simply anti-Trump, but pro-democracy, pro-inclusivity, and pro-decency.

We shall see.

---